Doom and Gloom

mbalunda

Epic Member
Jan 31, 2009
2,867
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Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it sounds like a lot of Pubnat hopefuls dreams will be coming to an end very quickly This is reliable information from the second in command at one of the western centers(Family member). The western region just got finished having a large meeting about the future of ATC.

Here is what came out of this: They have no intentions of hiring any air traffic controllers the remainder of the 2009 Fiscal Year(VRA, CTI, or Pubnat). They also believe there is a very good possibility that there will be no new hires during the 2010 FY as well. They are projecting very few retirements, and a descrease in air traffic until the year 2020(Which sounds a bit absurd, but those are the numbers being passed around throughout the FAA). It sounds like a couple facilities may be insulated from this as they are still very short, Dallas Forth Worth was mentioned as one that likely won't be effected much. They were told that current Pubnat applications would not be discarded, but as more time passes that only increases the amount of CTI students out there so the chance of getting hired becomes less and less likely. I also have a friend currently at the Academy(just started this week), and even the instructors are talking about how very few places are in need of new people. There was a group of students headed to Salt Lake who had a meet and greet with someone from SLC(I'd guess Lauri) who were informed that they would be the last new hires for quite some time during their get together.

You can believe what I say or not...I really don't care one way or another, I'm just trying to pass along information I'm getting from people who should be considered reliable. I don't enjoy the fact that hiring is going to be incredibly limited in the near future as I was hopeful I could start a career in ATC, but as the days go by this seems less and less likely.

Of course things could turn around and they may need people sooner, but these are the current FAA projections, and to be honest they don't look good for us hopefuls.
 

apegler

Junior Member
Nov 18, 2008
77
0
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Salt Lake City
All I can say is wow. I am headed to salt lake center and when our training director came out to talk to us here at the academy she told us that earlier that day she was told ZLC had gotten zero new hires at the panel.
 

ineedatc

Trusted Contributor
Dec 14, 2008
508
7
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Chi-town
Thank you very much for repeating the same shit that has been repeated on these forums for the past few months that I have been visiting. I will see the process through until I turn 31. Then I know it is over for me.
 

mbalunda

Epic Member
Jan 31, 2009
2,867
15
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All I can say is wow. I am headed to salt lake center and when our training director came out to talk to us here at the academy she told us that earlier that day she was told ZLC had gotten zero new hires at the panel.
All I can hope is that they won't combine Pubnat 5 & 6 and the zero new hires to ZLC will only effect the Pubnat 5 guys and then something crazy will happen and they'll need some in time for Pubnat 6 :D (ZLC is my first choice, have a friend out there, but sounds like that dream may be dying especially if they are getting zero new hires this time around).

Is your training director Lauri? She's been pretty good about getting information to me, and she seems pretty honest. What she told me a couple weeks ago is nearly identical to what I heard from the other person I had contact with in a western region tower.

Another important thing to keep in mind is that this is based on the FAAs current projections, I have no idea how they come up with the numbers, but I imagine they are pretty fluid. They seem to be sticking to these for now though.
 

mbalunda

Epic Member
Jan 31, 2009
2,867
15
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Thank you very much for repeating the same shit that has been repeated on these forums for the past few months that I have been visiting.
You are quite welcome. They had a meeting this week about this topic...I'm just passing on what was discussed.

I think apeglers post highlights what is becoming a reality for a lot of centers. Read: ZERO NEW HIRES.
 

ineedatc

Trusted Contributor
Dec 14, 2008
508
7
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Chi-town
If centers are not hiring then it is slowing way down. The Centers have the majority of the controllers but the weird part is that there are a few Centers who's washout rate is extremely high and you would think need to replace some vacancies. Also how will the Academy instructors stay employed? Oh well..
That is why I say...see the process through. People are going to retire. People are going to get fired/transfer. Do I think Pubnat 5 is on delay? yep. I dont expect to recieve Geo prefs til April. Not to squash MBAlunda's hopes, but I dont think they are going to completely skip pubnat 5 to get to 6. I dont think there are going to be any further pubnats for a long while, tho. Not based on anything but my opinion.
 

Muneco

Senior Analyst
Jan 13, 2009
1,178
5
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Ok guys answer me this question

WHY THE HELL DID THEY EVEN COME UP WITH PUBNATS WHEN YOU HAVE THOUSANDS OF CTI APPLICANTS WAITING TO GET JOBS AS CONTROLLERS? THE REASON WHY PUBNATS CAME OUT IS BECAUSE THE FAA IS IN NEED OF MORE SOULS AND NOT ONLY THROUGH CTI, VRA, OR RMC.

does anyone here know ambalumba? Im going about this with my own 2 eyes. If they post a CTI announcement I will be the first to say Bull$hi! to this post.
 

mbalunda

Epic Member
Jan 31, 2009
2,867
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Not to squash MBAlunda's hopes, but I dont think they are going to completely skip pubnat 5 to get to 6.
I don't seriously believe that...wishful thinking with a hint of scarcism.

All of this is base on what the FAA is currently projecting though. Their information probably is as shakey as anyone elses at this time. Like you said, they have no idea who will retire, when they will retire, they are expecting a steady decline in air travel for years to come, but that may never happen either. This just happens to be the information they are using at this time. Something could happen 4 months from now that will change their outlook.

It's all a guessing game.
 

ineedatc

Trusted Contributor
Dec 14, 2008
508
7
18
Chi-town
I don't seriously believe that...wishful thinking with a hint of scarcism.

That "scarcism" is something that I would keep to myself, if I were you. Mainly, because it does not exist.

It's all a guessing game.
Exactly, and that is why I say see the process through. No one knows what they are talking about on this damn board. The people in HR dont know what the hell is going on. lol. besides the fiscal year is just about half way through. A lot can happen between now and October.
 

MTCTIGUY

Trusted Contributor
Jun 19, 2008
628
1
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The 'Boro
Ok guys answer me this question

WHY THE HELL DID THEY EVEN COME UP WITH PUBNATS WHEN YOU HAVE THOUSANDS OF CTI APPLICANTS WAITING TO GET JOBS AS CONTROLLERS? THE REASON WHY PUBNATS CAME OUT IS BECAUSE THE FAA IS IN NEED OF MORE SOULS AND NOT ONLY THROUGH CTI, VRA, OR RMC.

does anyone here know ambalumba? Im going about this with my own 2 eyes. If they post a CTI announcement I will be the first to say Bull$hi! to this post.
I could see them posting VRA, CTI, and reinstatement announcements sparignly, however I doubt we will see many (if any) new PUBNATs for the foreseeable future. I also believe that hiring will be slow for the next few years, even for CTI and VRA. I'm so glad that I didn't listen to the people that said the Collegiate Training Initiative is a waste. I've learned so much valuable information about aviation already in the year and a half I've been here, that I feel I made a good decision. At least if I can't get an ATC job for awhile, I can use my flight dispatch license to work at a regional, or maybe even do FSS. Bottom line is a degree is king and it opens up many doors to you. All of you OTS guys who already have degrees and don't get picked up, at least you have something to fall back on. Also, if you are really set on ATC as a career, go to one of the CTI schools that offer a master's program.
 

mbalunda

Epic Member
Jan 31, 2009
2,867
15
38
Exactly, and that is why I say see the process through. No one knows what they are talking about on this damn board. The people in HR dont know what the hell is going on. lol. besides the fiscal year is just about half way through. A lot can happen between now and October.
I agree with you. I'm certainly still optimistic about the whole thing...but on the other hand there are a lot of bad things going on around us. That's why a lot of this can change pretty quickly, maybe the economy makes a turn for the best, people start to retire because they aren't afraid of being poor, air traffic increases, so then there would be a big need for controllers again.

I think FY '09 ends around September, but I'm not positive. We're all still in the same position we were in last month...a waiting game.
 

Muneco

Senior Analyst
Jan 13, 2009
1,178
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MTCTIGUY

Trusted Contributor
Jun 19, 2008
628
1
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The 'Boro
Heres what I found during a "so called hiring freeze" right before anyone knew there would be pubnats available

Here is a nice little post that was made in Jan of 2007. One year prior to the pubnat.

Evil Bobby: Fighting Evil With Evil: Air traffic control hiring freeze.... again.

Here is another post from AVweb back in Dec of '06 claiming there might be a freeze.

Money Crunch Threatens ATC Hiring Plan

Lets put all of these rumors to rest. If not go over to JC. LOL
Hiring freeze, no. Slow down, yes. More PUBNATS, probably not for a while. I can't see the FAA creating an even bigger backlog of OTS hires, when some PUBNAT 1 people have only recently begun arriving at their facility. There are also several hundred CTI grads still out there waiting, as well as several hundred more scheduled to graduate this Spring. Also, why do you people think that the FAA increased the number of CTI schools to 31. If each school only graduated 40 students a year, (low end average) you already have 1240 people. Add to that VRA, and you have more than enough applicants. Also, Muneco it would probably benefit you to also apply for the next CTI annoucement. (Whenever it is)
 

Muneco

Senior Analyst
Jan 13, 2009
1,178
5
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Hiring freeze, no. Slow down, yes. More PUBNATS, probably not for a while. I can't see the FAA creating an even bigger backlog of OTS hires, when some PUBNAT 1 people have only recently begun arriving at their facility. There are also several hundred CTI grads still out there waiting, as well as several hundred more scheduled to graduate this Spring. Also, why do you people think that the FAA increased the number of CTI schools to 31. If each school only graduated 40 students a year, (low end average) you already have 1240 people. Add to that VRA, and you have more than enough applicants. Also, Muneco it would probably benefit you to also apply for the next CTI annoucement. (Whenever it is)
AMEN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

apegler

Junior Member
Nov 18, 2008
77
0
6
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Salt Lake City
Just a side bar, these forums are areas that we can pass information to one another and share what we know and what we have been told. An update like this is something that is rather important and even if its the same stuff that has been said over and over and over again you know its kind of a nice thing to know that more and more people are hearing the same thing. I know it sucks for people that have been waiting and waiting for their start date and all of us that got our geo preference are luck and I know all of us are very happy and we realize how luck we actually are. but we certainly do not need anyone on here getting hostile with us because of what the FAA is saying or that fact that we are trying to keep everyone informed of what is happening. So really if you feel like you are reading the same stuff over and over again just a thought...don't click on the link, go about your day in your state of questioning and being anxious that maybe today is going to be the day I get that email or phone call I have been waiting for. We are all part of this, we have all gone through the waiting we have wondered if they have forgotten about our application but I think I can safely say that there is only a hand full of people on this sight that are not glad that there is someone else who is having the same problem, there are only a few people that are not glad to hear that despite the thread saying something similar to another threat that people are hearing the same thing. It kind of takes that feeling of questioning if something is true or not and relives it. And if you don't like these boards or what people have to say, there is a simple solution, don't use them.
 

Niagra19

"Murphy"
Sep 22, 2008
664
13
18
Phoenix
The FAA itself has a hard time reading their own very hazy crystal ball. History has proven that they may say one thing and do something entirely different. My inclination is to distrust the source's information (no I dont think they are intentionally lying) more than I distrust the poster. Only time will tell what they truly do with hiring.
 

flyingwriter

Senior Member
The FAA itself has a hard time reading their own very hazy crystal ball. History has proven that they may say one thing and do something entirely different. My inclination is to distrust the source's information (no I dont think they are intentionally lying) more than I distrust the poster. Only time will tell what they truly do with hiring.
I see what you're saying, but I think the source is correct. This is an extremely down economy and it makes sense that the FAA would slow or stop hiring this year. Air traffic probably will be down because of the recession, which means less of a need for controllers. Of course, I may be totally wrong (I hope I am), but it's hard to find anyone who is hiring in this economy.
 

Niagra19

"Murphy"
Sep 22, 2008
664
13
18
Phoenix
I see what you're saying, but I think the source is correct. This is an extremely down economy and it makes sense that the FAA would slow or stop hiring this year. Air traffic probably will be down because of the recession, which means less of a need for controllers. Of course, I may be totally wrong (I hope I am), but it's hard to find anyone who is hiring in this economy.
It makes sense, but its still all just speculation. Granted all of us in the hiring have a lot of time to speculate and to listen to the speculations of others. Some arguments are really damn good, but at the end of the day the only truth are the actions that have been taken.